Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorÖzlem, Şirin
dc.contributor.authorAltan, Yiğit Can
dc.contributor.authorOtay, Emre N.
dc.contributor.authorOr, İlhan
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-16T11:53:54Z
dc.date.available2019-07-16T11:53:54Z
dc.date.issued2019en_US
dc.identifier.citationÖzlem, S., Altan, Y. C., Otay, E. N., & Or, I. (2019). Grounding Probability in Narrow Waterways. Journal of Navigation, 1-15.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0373-4633
dc.identifier.issn1469-7785
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1017/S0373463319000572
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1124
dc.description.abstractThe Strait of Istanbul is one of the world's busiest, narrowest and most winding waterways. As such, there is a high grounding probability for vessels. Although a number of grounding probability models exist, they have been deemed unsuitable by local maritime experts, due to their insufficient stopping distance criteria for narrow waterways. Thus, there is a need for a new model. This paper proposes a two-component grounding probability model that multiplies the geometric grounding probability (calculated with a kinematic-based model) with the causation probability (calculated with a specially designed Bayesian network). The geometric probability model is improved in terms of stopping distance parameters and the Bayesian network is crafted for narrow waterways. The model is then deployed with pre-determined parameters within the Strait of Istanbul to run risk analysis scenarios. The results, validated with actual grounding records, show that the causation probability is the key component for quantifying the probability of grounding in narrow waterways. If navigated without frequent evasive manoeuvres, grounding would be almost inevitable. Although this study focuses on the Strait of Istanbul, the proposed approach can be applied to research into grounding probability of vessels navigating through other waterways.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCambridge University Pressen_US
dc.relation.isversionof10.1017/S0373463319000572en_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccessen_US
dc.subjectHuman Factoren_US
dc.subjectModellingen_US
dc.subjectRisken_US
dc.subjectStraitsen_US
dc.titleGrounding probability in narrow waterwaysen_US
dc.typearticleen_US
dc.relation.journalJournal of Navigationen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMühendislik Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.identifier.startpage1en_US
dc.identifier.endpage15en_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.relation.scopusScopus - Affiliation ID: 60105072en_US


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record