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Assessment of the disaster recovery progress through mathematical modelling

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Yayıncı Sürümü - Makale (545.7Kb)

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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Date

2020

Author

Dikmen, Seyyit Ümit
Akbıyıklı, Rıfat
Sönmez, Murat

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Citation

Dikmen, S. Ü., Akbıyıklı, R. ve Sönmez, M. (2020). Assessment of the Disaster Recovery Progress through Mathematical Modelling. Teknik Dergisi. 31(4), 1-14.

Abstract

Natural disasters, especially major earthquakes, cause widespread devastation in the built environment. Hence, the major component of the recovery in its aftermath constitutes a chain of projects starting at different times, having different costs and durations. In this study, the post disaster recovery curve modelled through a mathematical approach taking into account these properties of the projects. The approach followed is based on the project S-curve concept that provides the opportunity to simulate the progress by outlining the project spending. Well-known mathematical functions are adapted to model the project spending and the handover processes. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the general behavior of the recovery curve using the model developed. Weibull distribution is used to generate the model’s parameters. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the recovery process exhibits an S-shape, the duration of initial portion and the slope of the bulk portion being significantly governed by the level of preparedness of the community.

Source

Teknik Dergi

Volume

31

Issue

4

URI

https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.473099
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11779/1131

Collections

  • Araştırma Çıktıları, Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu [455]
  • Araştırma Çıktıları, TR-Dizin İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu [106]
  • Araştırma Çıktıları, WOS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu [482]
  • MF, İM, Makale Koleksiyonu [13]



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